Beard growth and momentum investing aren’t too different, they’re both real, they’re just not profitable, (unless it’s Paul Adams beard of course). After discussing the illusions of investing last week, Paul and Cory break down the actions you can take as solutions to those illusions.
WHAT WAS COVERED
- 00:00 – Show starts.
- 00:35 – Paul welcomes the show.
- 02:40 – Today’s talking points.
- 04:15 – Recap the illusions of investing.
- 06:40 – Reviewing 5-star funds performance.
- 12:43 – What is momentum investing?
- 15:40 – The importance of diversification.
- 21:27 – Asset class comparisons.
- 28:38 – Fighting the temptation to break strategy.
- 30:23 – Discipline and consistency.
- 36:27 – How to connect with Sound Financial Group.
- 37:48 – Show ends, thank you for listening.
Illusions of Investing (recent episode): Podcast Episode
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Contains a sample of “King” by Zayde Wølf courtesy of Lyric House.
——————————————————————————————————————————- Paul 0:01 Hello, welcome to your business, your wealth. My name is Paul Adams. I’m the founder and CEO of sound financial group by joined by Corey Shepherd, the blue shirted wonder. Shepherd, I guess I should say, Shepherd so fast, and president of sound Financial Group never got, I do have to say one of our big announcements going into 2020 as Korea’s still gonna wear a blue shirt. So just wanted everybody to know as we go into 2021 he’s still gonna have blue shirts on. So Cory 1:04 Paul 1:11 Cory 1:44 Paul 1:48 Cory 2:04 Unknown Speaker 2:06 Paul 2:08 Cory 2:15 Paul 2:19 Cory 3:10 Paul 3:32 Unknown Speaker 3:58 Cory 4:01 Paul 4:06 Cory 4:21 Unknown Speaker 4:28 Cory 4:32 Unknown Speaker 6:14 Paul 6:15 Cory 7:18 Paul 7:23 Cory 8:36 Paul 8:58 Cory 10:25 Paul 10:55 Cory 12:30 Paul 12:34 Unknown Speaker 12:35 Cory 12:43 Paul 13:12 Unknown Speaker 13:15 Cory 13:23 Paul 15:26 Cory 16:14 Paul 16:21 Cory 16:27 Paul 16:43 Unknown Speaker 18:34 Paul 18:36 Cory 20:19 Unknown Speaker 20:50 Cory 20:55 Paul 21:13 Unknown Speaker 21:31 Unknown Speaker 21:32 Cory 21:33 Paul 21:36 Unknown Speaker 25:37 Paul 25:38 Cory 29:34 Paul 29:51 Cory 31:23 Paul 31:48 Cory 33:17 Paul 33:30 Cory 35:28 Paul 35:35 Cory 36:45 Paul 36:57 Unknown Speaker 37:00 Unknown Speaker 37:01 Cory 37:02 Transcribed by https://otter.ai This Material is Intended for General Public Use. By providing this material, we are not undertaking to provide investment advice for any specific individual or situation, or to otherwise act in a fiduciary capacity. Please contact one of our financial professionals for guidance and information specific to your individual situation. Sound Financial Inc. dba Sound Financial Group is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Insurance products and services are offered and sold through Sound Financial Inc. dba Sound Financial Group and individually licensed and appointed agents in all appropriate jurisdictions. This podcast is meant for general informational purposes and is not to be construed as tax, legal, or investment advice. You should consult a financial professional regarding your individual situation. Guest speakers are not affiliated with Sound Financial Inc. dba Sound Financial Group unless otherwise stated, and their opinions are their own. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Each week, the Your Business Your Wealth podcast helps you Design and Build a Good Life™. No one has a Good Life by default, only by design. Visit us here for more details: yourbusinessyourwealth.com © 2020 Sound Financial Inc. yourbusinessyourwealth.com ———————————————————————————————————————————
Full Episode Transcription
Welcome to your business your wealth. We’re your hosts, Paul Adams and Corey Shepard teach founders and entrepreneurs how to build wealth beyond their business balance sheets.
I’m conversate the basis about getting my size back in stock so that I can branch out a little bit.
I think that I don’t even think that’s necessarily Korea. I think we should. I’ve been thinking that my church right now is building a building. I tried to enter into something with my Pastor Mike, how about we both just grow our beards, Intel, the building is done. And we’re doing service indoors. And he’s like, my wife hates my beard. This thing is coming off at the end of this weekend. And I was like, Well, I guess that’s I’m hoping for a good business reason, Corey that I can go straight ZZ Top. And yeah, that doesn’t want to stay in frame.
I want a three button beard on you. Yeah, like we can get meaning.
Does it count the top? 123? It doesn’t. I got to get down to four. That’s four. So this is third. That’s their button. Yeah, I think I think I can do it. I’m gonna, I’m gonna grow my beard for everybody. Right now. You’re ready,
Did you guys see it?
That’d be a good solid eighth of an inch of growth right there. I do that usually in the morning before the show. Right. But
now our topic today beer now everybody’s here? Well,
here’s the thing that I think we’re going to pick up on today, we talked about the title of it being the solutions to the illusions of investing. Now, just last week recorded and it just got published, we’re hoping for more space between them. But that’s part of being in show business. I suppose. Not everything hits its release date. So one of the things that we’re going to be doing today is going through how do we solve for some of the problems that we uncovered in the illusions of investing last week? How is it we use those to be able to properly communicate those principles both to our clients and put them in a position they can implement those strategies in a way that is not highly complex for them, or for their spouse? So with that, Cory anywhere we want to go first. Or you just want me Yeah,
let’s take a quick recap of the illusions of investing. Just for everyone who’s tuning in for the first time, we really recommend you check out that that video, it’s one of the more profitable 30 minutes you could spend this year in browsing YouTube, or our website.
Yep, I would say that of the YouTube browsing you could have that is going to be superior to whatever the latest cat videos are in terms of turning out your financial future. I’d say so. And almost as funny. I’ll tell you what if it gets us more views, Cory I am perfectly willing to shoot cat out of a potato cannon.
picturing a little helmet all CGI anyone
know animals have been harmed in the making or reversing of any of these videos.
It most likely CGI most likely so. But let’s talk a little bit about this idea of the illusions investing one of those primary tenants was we try to pick winners.
Now backup one. Oh, there we go. That’s it.
Ah, yes, you’re the you hit you hit this one.
So, survivorship bias is the idea that we’re we’re looking at the wrong evidence. We see a money manager on the front of a magazine who’s beat the market for 10 years in a row or 14 years in a row. And we are only looking at that winner we’re not looking at how many people that you might have also invested in our behind them having failed doing exactly the same thing. Stock picking is the is the illusion that anyone, whether you’re running your own trading screen at your house with all the research of some online platform, or the highest paid professionals have any kind of edge on picking the right stock at the right time, over time. active managers tend not to beat their indexes over time, in large part because the additional costs that they create attempting to outperform the market creates a higher hurdle for them to just break even let alone beat the market. And then costs underneath the surface can be quite a lot more than we think there is the expense ratio of those mutual funds, often higher for active managers. That’s the price tag of the fund that everyone’s very familiar with in investing are usually familiar with. But there’s also things like transaction costs, that internal drag of all of the trading that a fund might do. There’s cash drag the fact that funds have to keep more cash on hand at any one time to let people get in and out who are being undisciplined with their investing. That means that money is not invested in the market not growing along with the rest of the fun and dragging down that return. All right, I’m good with awesome.
So when those active managers are trying to pick winners. Now, this is a 20 year period of study, looking at all the top performers and whether or not they beat their benchmarks. And we find that only 23% do who are in stock based mutual funds. You’ll see stocks and equities. interchanged a lot. So that’s stock based mutual funds, and even Morningstar, the famed Morningstar have the five star funds, when looking at all of their funds over long periods of time, you have your five star funds, four star, three star, two star and one star funds. And you would think that what would happen with those five star funds is all their performance over the following five years. You see last year on top is all of 2017, all the top rated mutual funds. So the question University of Chicago asked when making this study is do Morningstar ratings have predictive capacity. And what they found was that the performance was pretty random, you would think that all of the five star performers over the next five years would be in the top percentile? Nope. Or
at least we’d see some kind of visual concentration. Yeah, yeah,
maybe a lump or a clump, or two, none. Unlike our thanks, thanksgiving mashed potatoes that had their fair share of lumps. So even three star and two star funds don’t seem to concentrate in the area in which you thought they were the only one that seems to have a level of concentration are the one star funds. So the only thing Morningstar is predicted for us is that if you are terrible at what you do, you’re probably gonna stay terrible. But you might be a rock star, because you’ll notice there’s still some stocks that are some mutual funds that performed in the top percentile in the following five years. Why is that? It’s because they, meaning the actual asset manager manager money, they don’t know where the markets going to go. And they don’t have the ability to properly predict it in a way that would actually take care of your investments. And they’re racking up costs all along the way. And we wonder why this is on every single disclosure for an investment statement, including this graph from the University of Chicago study is because there is no way to predict based on past performance, okay.
Now, Paul, this is just a little live stream housekeeping. Are you really not using your sound Financial Group mug right now? Like I have Miranda, mail me three mugs from Seattle to make sure that one of them makes it without breaking in the mail, just so that I can always rep the home team on on these end, you’re like, I would love to use an insulated but I would,
I am. I am a I am a little bit ashamed. I, I did the unthinkable. And I allowed the washing of the mugs. So if there is like a 20 if there’s a 25% downturn in the market, or an asteroid hits Washington State dead on it will be because I watched those mugs. I’m not a person that’s superstitious, but I am a little suspicious. Okay. So where where can we get out performance, there’s been some areas that’s been academically proven. So when we’re doing asset management, we want to do it in ways that have actually academically proven to produce a little bit about performance. Now, the story we’re going to tell here is not sexy. Now, the reason it’s not sexy is because, and this is a secret, turn up your volume. It’s not fancy because it works. You see, the strategies that work don’t require that what we do is some enormous amount of machinations To get the quote unquote result, or one of my favorites, I had a client send me a video that was like at the end of this video, we are going to encase for you this new type of deposit data. And she, what do you think of this? I said, Well, what I think is when somebody really has something groundbreaking and new, you don’t have to watch a 30 minute video to find out about in the last five minutes. Okay,
just a quick plug. These aren’t the only four factors that work in the market, we don’t have time to go more in depth about this. But there’s a lot more out there hundreds out there. These are just the ones that academics have proven are always around kind of in play on an ongoing basis and profitable to put in place in a real portfolio. So if we ever have a chance to talk offline in a meeting, we love to go into all those other fun areas if you’re interested. But I’m I’m
actually going to have you put a little bit on the spot. I’m going to revisit these four really quickly. And then I want you to come back and maybe talk a little bit Cory about why momentum trading is not a part of our portfolios. Yeah. So I think this, here’s a shocker. I know you’re all shocked stocks outperformed bonds. I know. That’s why you tuned into live stream, you guys could close out now if that’s what you’ve been waiting for. Small stocks outperform large cap stocks, small cap outperform large cap value companies outperform growth companies and more profitable companies beat companies with lower profitability. Now that one actually was a part of a Nobel Prize won by Eugene fama, who’s one of the board of directors and advisors at dimensional fund advisors, who is the asset management firm that we use for most all of our client portfolios. That one apart of his Nobel Prize, that prize that idea that more profitable companies outperform lower profitability companies. Now, if you don’t think the way people are trading and buying stocks is not a little crazy. It’s that it took a Nobel prize to win in 2013. To say that more profitable companies beat left less profitable companies. Okay, so here’s here it is, by the numbers. You’ll notice that there’s this gross return in standard deviation on each of these numbers. Now. Man, I grabbed the wrong one. This one has some old data in it. Cory, I’m gonna ask for your forgiveness momentarily while I grab the right slides here.
Well, you just use the wrong ones for now. And ordinal eighth, and the other ones later, heck,
I got the right ones right here talk about momentum, you’re doing that. Cory, would you please talk about momentum or
momentum investing is is the idea that if a stock is say, trending upward in price or downward in price that like an object like a rock rolling across the the ground, the it’ll have momentum and keep going in that way for a cert for a while. And I actually had someone several years ago now hand me a book about momentum investing that someone had written and they wanted me to look at it to see if they should put this into place in their portfolio.
And and by the way, specifically, wasn’t this someone
who it was a fighter was the advisor, it was an advisor whose husband had been using this for trading.
And the advisor wanted me to talk to her husband about it, because he wouldn’t listen to her. So which I could get. And so at first, I’m like, Okay, another, you know, crazy theory, like, this doesn’t seem like it would be real. And then Paul, and I went to an investing research conference, where a researcher actually talked about momentum investing, they brought it up, I’m like, Oh, good. I have and then they said, and it’s real. And Jose, what they said, but it’s not profitable. Ooh, because the The reality is that the the momentum does exist in the movement of those stocks. But it’s short term, like three to six months, I think, is what they is what they said. So the amount of trading that you’d have to do to always be managing of these different holdings, well, you’re creating more cost than the edge that you’re gaining. So it’s this is so tricky in the world of real world investing, not just academic theory, but putting it into real portfolios with the real friction that we have in place. That’s real tax costs, real tax costs, is that you would be losing by winning at a momentum strategy. It would look like you are getting some positive movement you buy a stock for lower than you sold it, but your net profit would be eroded. Now dimensional does actually employ momentum in parts of creating it’s it’s portfolios, but it’s just, you know, on the page, dice Meaning if they know that they have to trade out something in their portfolio to keep it in balance, and they see momentum happening, they’ll just, you know, they’ll let the momentum write up a little bit more before they sell to get that little bit of edge. So they just, they don’t use it to try to rule the world, they just use it to gain a tiny bit more efficiency in their portfolios on the on like the sell side.
Yeah, it doesn’t, it doesn’t change what they add to or subtract from the portfolio. It just changes the way that they trade it to create some additional efficiency, but it’s not enough to produce real return. All right, so each of these in quick review, we have the s&p 500. Everybody’s heard of the s&p 500. This is the index of our larger stocks in the United States, almost all growth versus bonds, shocker, stocks, outperform bonds. Next is size factor, small companies outperform large companies. And this can be deceiving, because you’ll notice that it looks like about a 2% gap. That’s like 20 some percent. That is the gap between those returns. Because, yep.
That the one we were just looking at head 2019. And this one ends in 2018.
Yeah, cuz we’ve got Yeah, we got bad data and the other one. Okay, good.
Well, I call that out because I know someone would see it and and make a comment. So this is intentional, because this the cleaner data set, even though it only goes to 2018. For our purposes today. Perfect. Exactly right. Yeah, everyone had chat diverted.
chat, chat averted. So what, what we notice is we get a little bit better return in small stocks over time than we do large stocks, we also get this a similar value. value being the additional return from value stocks, and value stocks are the ones that have a higher book to current market value. So they’ve got they own stuff, they own real estate, they own buildings, they own IP, things like that, that makes them more valuable, makes them a value company. And then last but not least, is that profitability factor. And the fun thing about the profitability factor is it actually produces more return. And it does that with less risk. So great. Now, when we’re assembling a portfolio, many people ask, Well, how did how do you go about it? What do you choose, for people to be able to invest in? Well, one of our big things we need to do is diversify. Now this if you look at where the countries are, you can kind of see it roughly matches to a world map. But instead of landmass, this is a measurement of the gross value of the publicly traded securities in those countries. So this is an amalgamation of what they call market capitalization. add up all the values of all the publicly traded stocks and you get this now one thing that we point our clients to all the time when it comes to the media is the clear and simple fact that Greece if you remember, some years ago, there’s rioting in the streets degrees, they’re getting ready to burn the place down, their banks are going to collapse everything else and people like our stock market is gonna get crushed.
you guys can look at this graph with us right now. Do you see Greece anywhere on there even at a 1% value? No, no, it’s not even part of an academically allocated globally diversified portfolio, at least not more than a percent. And you can see it across the world. One thing that shocks a lot of people is that China is only 3%. It’s because the Chinese government owns most everything. There isn’t that much you can invest in. And, and we see the other countries spread out. So we have to be worldwide diversified. We also have to put ourselves in a position that we diversify. We looked at this a little bit last time, but we need to make sure we stay in all the stocks all the time, because we don’t know which ones are going to perform or not. This last month, in the year of pandemic, almost all your returns have come in the month of November, when the most contested and currently still in courts presidential election ever in the midst of a pandemic. In the same year. We had fire tornadoes, okay, all that stuff. And still, almost all of your return on your investment portfolios will come in November, if they’re academically allocated globally diversified. Certainly that’s the case with the s&p 500. Speaking that diversification, this is why we own everything. Anything that is an investable company, meaning they make the right decisions. They’re running a business In business, they’re not in the midst of bankruptcy like that. And we just don’t all those companies. So if you think these like retailers, some other asset manager is that top picture, and what they’re doing is they’re saying targets gonna win. And they’re focused on target. In our portfolios, what happens is we on Target, Walmart Best Buy, like all of them.
And what I love about that is, is you don’t, you know, your, all of your hopes are in target on the on the top, on the bottom, we actually win in almost any scenario of the retail sector, like, if target goes out of business, people still need to go buy toilet paper, and groceries. So they’re, they’re gonna, they’re not just going to leave all their money at home, they’re gonna go to Walmart or go to, well, those, I mean, any grocery store, goodwill letter,
when Kmart shuts down, they’re just gonna buy from Amazon, and wow.
Don’t think there’s that many k Mart’s left. So but the point is that value goes to those other competitors, and those holdings grow. So you don’t really lose from diversification. That’s not a guarantee of gaining, but it’s not opting for a lesser result, either.
That That’s it. That’s it and and why we diversify and hold those different assets, it’s pretty easy. You have three securities in performance, it’s pretty rough road, if you blend those three securities together, it ends up as a bit of a smoother curve, which is what enters me to the next topic, we’re going to touch
no not at the eye doctors, this is not,
this is not an eye test. Nope. But here’s, here’s what it is. Now I’m going to give the cleaner version of this than perhaps I would use with a client. If your portfolio is working, if your portfolio is working, you should be a little bit upset. 100% of the time, I’m gonna say that again, because I really want that sink in with everybody. If you have a portfolio that is working, you should be a little bit dissatisfied 100% of the time. If you’re an investment management client of ours, that’s our goal is to have you a little bit upset 100% of the time, let me explain what I mean by that. If you look across the top of this chart, you’re gonna see it’s 2000 2001 2002 this lists all the years. And then we have a mix of different asset classes on the vertical and how they performed in that same calendar year. So as you work your way across, you can see which asset classes did well and which didn’t do that well. And you can see that some stay on the top, but some of those same, like emerging markets are also at the bottom with absolute ground breakingly negative rates of return. And for instance, when you’re down 53%, then this probably everybody listening to our show knows this already. But when you’re down 53%, say half a million, now you’re down to about $466,070, approximately. And then you go up by 78%. Well, now you’re only back up to like 750 you’re not even breakeven, yet 18% return, you’re still not broke, even negative 18, you have broke even definitely, you haven’t broken. So even some really sexy asset classes, if you tried to stack money into them and say, I’m just gonna go after this, it’s still a pretty unpleasant ride. And no matter which asset class you pick, guess what’s one of the other asset classes gonna outperform you every single year. Now, if you stay wrapped up in this, it’s a little bit like getting on the highway, trying to get somewhere in a hurry and you’re passing a bunch of people and traffic as you go. You will take more risk probably induce more anxiety both upon you and your passengers. And the likelihood of you producing an outsized result is about random, if you’re recklessly driving down the road, and it’s not that much different when you’re jumping between these asset classes. Now, even if we took one that is certainly a fan favorite right now is the standard Poor’s 500. We can follow it up through the end of 2018. And you can see that most of the years despite the large cap growth stocks having done really, really well the last five years. Bottom line is you wouldn’t have wanted that to be your only asset class for most of the last 20 years. In fact, the first 10 years of this we can go through this negative down negative nine down negative 12. Down negative 22. Up 2810 four 915 eight 5.49 negative 37% 2615. It took until about 2011 that if you started in 2000, the s&p 500 you are back to even even a decade. By the way, it would have panned out, you could have just held, held it together and continue to hold the s&p 500. Maybe you saved a lot of money over those 10 years, and you would be well rewarded in this decade for having done that. The only problem is, who can hold that investment manager strategy with no returns for 10 years, very few. So this is where we want to get you highly dissatisfied with good results. So this is an example. This is where I get up, I try out all my new material just live on the podcast, no sense in like testing it with individual. And if Cory perks up from it, I know I did something, right.
if we follow the 6040 market, let me explain what that means. That means we’re owning 60% stocks, 40% bonds. And we’re owning those stocks, small cap value international all that, based upon their representation in the marketplace, both from an international perspective and by cap size, large, medium, small, and by it being a value company or growth company, exactly the way the market is separate is the way this is and rebalances every year. And what you start to see is, you get pretty decent returns. But you never ever, ever, ever, ever have bragging rights, there is not a time that you’re going to be at a wine tasting, where people are saying, Oh, I did this with Tesla, which they don’t tell you about Fisker Oh, I made this incredible gain in Amazon, they don’t mention that they got eaten alive by PayPal a decade ago, like that pets, calm, pets calm. And so with this 6040 market allocation, you will never have those bragging rights. In fact, those years when you might have the most bragging rights, let’s just look in 2008 when people were losing their tails, you didn’t walk around bragging about you’re only down 20% while other people were down 50. Or for those people highly leveraged real estate, they’re down 150%, they actually lost money that they don’t have yet they’re just obligated for 30 years to pay it on a mortgage to a bank. That is not something that you would brag about. So you never have bragging rights, with an academically allocated globally diversified portfolio. But now let’s build in the tilts. These are the tilts that we use with dimensional funds who use 14 different dimensional funds, those are rebalanced on a consistent annual basis, we vary those funds a little bit based upon somebody maybe as an 80%, stock 20% bond investor, we’re looking at 6040 now, but now it’s 6040 with the tilt, the tilt toward value, that tilt towards small cap and that tilt toward more profitable companies. Now, if we just click in between these, what you’re going to see pretty quickly is a slight shift upward in all of the years shown. And that slight shift upward, is that extra little return we’re getting from value from small cap and from more profitable companies. And why we pursue that tilt is it gives us that little bit of extra return. And our intent with that extra little return is just to use that over time to pay for having had a household financial officer, a coach, somebody who’s familiar with the tax laws and multidiscipline, across what you’re doing with your car insurance and home insurance, we don’t do those things. But all of our household financial officers, all of the advisors that work with us that when you work with us, you are connected straight to one of these household financial officers. And what we want you to be able to do is have a conversation with your household financial officer every time something tempts you to break strategy. Yeah. Because all we want to do is get that extra little return. So it’s enough to pay for sound Financial Group being in your life. And for that household financial officer being alongside us, you make investment decisions that are inside of our scope, but also outside of our scope, whether it’s buying a rental property or buying another business, making a career change, we just want to journey alongside you. And just like a Chief Financial Officer for a large corporation, they don’t make all the decisions that’s up to the CEO and the president to empower them to make certain decisions. The rest of it is based upon navigation and information that the CEO and the president need to make all the decisions they’re going to make for where they want that company to be in 510 1520 years.
The way I like to say it is we like to let the market pay for having us help you get the most out of it. And the real value that we add over time is in that strategy and and discipline and helping you make the most of all your other financial decisions.
I gotta say that back to your core because I I think I’ve heard you say it before, but it’s just sinking in differently. Now. You said We let the market pay for us being able to teach you how to utilize it properly. Mm hmm. All right, guys, we just wrote our new mission statement. But, but the thing is that while this is not any kind of rocket surgery does, it does require that we have discipline and consistency. And I’m going to explain why here a little bit. And we’re going to look behind our process and some data behind the decisions that we make as well. This special treat for those of you listening live. This is what years, the premium that’s the extra return from these four tilts, that it produced the tilt that was promised. Now this is each of these is based upon a 10 year history. So for instance, I’m just going to point out a single year here in 2009, that red means you would have been better off investing in bonds for the prior 10 years than investing in stocks. Same thing would have been true for 2008. We can see all through the 90s, it would have looked like owning small cap stocks was a bad idea. Because large cap outperformed it and you could see small cap then crushed for the next decade.
And to be fair to each category, the red doesn’t mean that it was negative, it just means that large cap performed better than the small. So like 2019, large, you know, large cap and small cap small cap hasn’t been doing awful large cap has just been doing so much better. So that’s the other important piece,
perfect segue into growth versus value. We’re seeing this last five years that values not been earning its premium. Now we saw this last time in the late 90s. And what happened in the late 90s was an extreme type of mean reversion. mean reversion is, if this is the slope we’re expecting our money to grow on, and it starts performing up here at some point, it’s got to revert back to below that slope. So that the long term average is accurate. And we’re right in the midst of that right now. You see value has been producing positive returns, it’s not been producing positive returns in excess of growth. And so I want you to look at those little red lines are a little bit like a rubber band being stretched. And when growth gets it, its legs, kind of checked a little bit by whatever that we make no prediction of what it will be or how it will happen. For all we know, it could be oil prices. Now suddenly, Amazon can’t deliver everything and all the accompanying businesses. Who knows what triggers it? What we do know is that at some point that value premium is going to return. And when it does, are we going to be positioned well for it? Or are we going to be chasing our tails? Because what we’re seeing right now is so many people, their portfolios have kind of aimlessly drifted? Would you agree with this Corey to like more and more and more growth?
Yeah, every 401k that I meet before it’s met us is incredibly overweighted in US large cap growth stocks, the s&p 500 basket.
Yep. And, and the thing is that though those have been producing fine returns, but just like we looked at that big patchwork cloth that looked like I was giving you an eye exam, what I would have you think about is that the asset classes that do well in one year are not the ones that are posed to do well in following years. That’s why we stay highly diversified. That’s why we rebalance at least on an annual basis, sometimes more often. And the reason we stay tilted to value to small cap and the more profitable companies because we know that that premium is eventually going to enter back into the equation. And when it does, it’s going to make a big difference. And we’ll just kind of wrap on this today. You see, as we make our investing decisions, we just kind of did a bit of a deep dive in these last two conversations, one on the illusions of investing the things that are not properly disclosed to us by our financial institutions before we invest, and many much of which in those illusions just accept that as gospel like the things that we’re pointing out as illusions are actual individual investors and financial advisors, strategies that they’re using that are provably false. And that is almost always the case inside of big box financial retail. Because any advisor that thinks the way we think and they’re affiliated with big box financial retail will eventually eject themselves. If they don’t eject like like an immune system. You just couldn’t have somebody like us inside some of these big box financial retailers, because they would either say we don’t want you here anymore, or we would be so bothered by being affiliated with them, we would leave and we have. That is what we want you guys to see as well, we just did a bit of a deep dive. This is a small, small part of the decisions that we make for the long run, they’re still the decisions of what kind of account should I put it in? should just be a Roth, should it not be a Roth? Can I do a Roth? Do I make too much money? Can I do a 401k? Even though I have no employees? Can
I all of those things? Or should I keep on hand at any one time? Let’s, let’s talk.
Yes. And that’s before we even get to things like wills, trusts umbrella policies, at where you want your lifestyle to be? Do you know what your household spends every month? Those are questions that are important to answer. And really be I would say, go like john, do we ask, be in an inquiry about it? Find out find out what you don’t even know yet. Like for those of you listening? Do you know what your number is? Do you know the amount of capital work required to pay all of your annual expenses so you can continue to survive as a household that you escape the gravitational pull of your business or escape the gravitational pull of corporate America to put you in a position to be financially independent. So many people don’t start with that level of inquiry to just be sure that they know whether or not they will have enough money or for that matter how much money they even ought to have. And for those of you that find that of interest and want to have a conversation with us, we’d be more than happy to have a conversation with you. You can find us on all the social medias under your business, your well sound financial group or ask Paul Adams. And with that, Corey, anything you want to send our audience off with today? We went way over time.
Sorry about that. We usually do. But that’s why you know, Paul, when I tell Paul how long we want to take, it’s like the friend that you know, is always going to be 10 minutes late. I just, I just really shrink it down.
I’m 10 minutes long.
thanks for tuning in and and listening. Definitely go back and check out the illusions of investing episode we released just a week ago if you haven’t seen it. And as always, we hope that this is contributed to you being able to design and build a device
Hello, welcome to your business, your wealth. My name is Paul Adams. I’m the founder and CEO of sound financial group by joined by Corey Shepherd, the blue shirted wonder. Shepherd, I guess I should say, Shepherd so fast, and president of sound Financial Group never got, I do have to say one of our big announcements going into 2020 as Korea’s still gonna wear a blue shirt. So just wanted everybody to know as we go into 2021 he’s still gonna have blue shirts on. So
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