PODCAST EPISODE 265: Jim Cramer’s picks for 2023

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0:04

Hello, and welcome to your business your wealth. My name is Paul Adams and right before I introduce one of the greatest men that I know, I want to remind you guys, it really makes a difference if you like and subscribe, like this episode comment on anything below positive comments, negative comments, we love all the comments, because it increases the likelihood that an important piece of content that could make a difference for someone will actually get presented to that someone. And I’ll ask you guys to take a minute when you get value from this, be sure to hit the subscribe, be sure to hit the like. And the biggest reason you should is because Corey Shepard checks the analytics on a consistent ongoing basis. And it makes him sad when you don’t like the video. Cory anything else you’d like to say about your sadness?

0:50

No, sorry, I’m just laughing because I have a nice view of my beautiful neighborhood out the window here and I while you were entering I thought I was witnessing a fight happen. Like someone was doing a good old kickboxing like knee jab, Nope, just neighbors one duck and under the other dog leash, you know, just like doing I looked down just the right time, it’d be like seeing this like

1:18

Cory. If I tell you if you witnessed a fight out your window, and then you gave us like a solid Joe Rogan play by play like UFC, I’d say we put the episode out. And I’m not Cory lives in a very, very, very nice neighborhood. But it is in Chicago. So there’s always hope. We’re gonna have an episode like to all of our Chicago friends, clients, listeners, you know where you live. All right. So today, we’re going to talk about predictions, Cory, we get to talk about what the predictions are for 2023. And we’re going to look at one set of predictions from Jim Cramer, who’s one of our favorite content creators out there. And the other is from a series of people making crypto predictions, and we’re gonna get to come back to this episode at the end of the year. And let’s see how these folks turned out. They might have had amazing predictions that turned out to be right, for the reasons they said they would be right. And then the more likely outcome is that these stocks are going to do what these stocks do. And it’s going to have little to nothing to do with these people that and their take on what would happen with them. But we’ll see. Cory, you want to take us to this first article.

2:38

You know, something just occurred to me like I’ve never seen and I’ve looked at it a few times and if anyone listening can steer us to a link put in the notes below. Anyone doing like Hey, I followed everything Jim Cramer said to do for 10 years and here was my outcome I’ve never seen it and I don’t think it exists and if it does exist I don’t think the results are really what good because if they were Cramer would be having it like shouting it from the rooftops as quantified results of what you know his investment.

3:16

Yes, I found don’t buy don’t buy. I found a soundboard and I believe don’t buy. We’re actually broadcasting that right Miranda. Oh, we got hog noise in here. Yeah.

3:31

So, you know, I got kind of distracted as I saw this come up on the screen. So

3:36

should be what maybe I could start using these all the time, we’ll come back to it if I think there’s good cause to use any of those.

3:46

I don’t watch cable TV anymore. So he has, we have this article where he has he says these five NASDAQ losers could rebound in 2023. So number one methodology for these picks is going through the worst performing stocks and the Nasdaq 100. So they’ve been that’s a great place to start, I guess.

4:13

I guess this would be like me saying, what I’m going to do is look through all of the people being released from the occupational therapy section of Swedish Hospital near my home to best predict who can run a marathon. We’re gonna take the real people really taking big hits and people that were car accidents we’re gonna make them run a marathon. That’s what he’s after here.

4:36

So here’s this quote out of the NASDAQ’s Biggest Losers I think Qualcomm Lam research micron and Airbnb will work this year, although not necessarily the first half he said heading and don’t forget Illumina. So it’s, you know, just the structure of how this plays out. Where it’s like, oh, I think they’re gonna work this year, though. Not necessarily the first To what is not necessarily the first half mean about what I should buy when and what I should sell, when, like, how is that even advice you could follow? How would you? What are you following? What are you doing with it?

5:13

Exactly.

5:17

It’s entertainment, like entertainment.

5:22

But it is entertainment that we should have some fun with. So here’s something. Cramer says Wall Street expects semiconductor companies start losing iPhone orders in 2024. It’s possible the company could hold on to at least some of those orders do companies push into the auto market, she also helped the stock.

5:42

Now I did read that that Apple is trying to get to India for a bunch of their iPhone production and Qualcomm’s doing it in China. Right? Like that’s,

5:51

I think that’s what they’re doing on their production.

5:53

Yeah.

5:54

So just for fun if you guys want to see this is Qualcomm, just that one stock over the last year, and it didn’t like drop all at once, it just kind of had a nice slow fall. So as we talk about each one of these, I’ll just bring up a chart of their last year for fine, not all of them, but a couple of

6:10

them. This article was written January 6, so we’re we’re less than a month after the article. So whatever has happened between now and when he said it is pretty inconclusive one way or the other. So

6:29

just what’s happened to them over the last year

6:31

over the last year, right? They hit they took totally. So micron, he advised investors to wait several months to buy shares of micron, but make sure to do so before the chip glut is over. Once there’s any sign of a bottom, this thing will bounce back like crazy. Always has, he said

6:51

always has. Well, that might be a good one for us to look up. micron. And I’ll bring it up on the screen. micron technologies. They’re there, mu m mu, is there m mu is their ticker. Let’s what date was this written? January 3, third. Okay, so hey, it did do something because on January 3 is worth 50. It’s worth 61. Now, Cory

7:21

is 61 from

7:22

56? Do you want it right away? Sell it right now. But here’s the funny thing. So it’s high was 95, about a year ago. And now it’s in 60s. So not such good news, if you’re like I’ve been in micron, but maybe good news, if what you were going to do is roll the dice. And when we say roll the dice, we mean roll the dice, because it is speculation. Because what I’m doing, frankly, this is the equivalent of something I used to do. I don’t know not everybody knows this. I grew up in Vegas built my first financial firm in Las Vegas, etc. But if I was ever taking people out downtown, I didn’t gamble. But sometimes at the craps table, I’d be sitting there playing because it’s easy thing you sit down, you do a lot of conversation. It’s not it doesn’t cost a lot of money to sit there for a while. But then somebody walked by and I would just choose a random person, I’d say pick a number. And they would say something, I would just take a $25 chip and put it down on there. That’s the same. And by the way, it did pay off. I once did that. Some lady said whatever the number was, I put 50 bucks on it and hit and it’s a legendary story.

8:35

Yeah. And then how many times did you do that? And it didn’t

8:40

write? Well, that’s the thing. That story is legendary. And you might be surprised for it. I don’t remember all the times I lost it because I don’t remember all the times the lessons you guys legendary story of like, person walking by. And by the way, here’s the other problem with that. It worked. And somewhere deep inside my logical and stoic and somewhat heartless way of thinking about the world. I still like somehow creep up like maybe there’s something that it’s a random person. It’s not me. That works about it. But it’s because I only remember the winning. Same thing here. Now we’re gonna remember because we’re going over this right now we’re going to talk about it in a year. And then you know,

9:23

I think there’s a new, a new rule for life. If you ever talked to someone who’s done some gambling, anybody who says that they’ve taken more money from the casinos than they’ve given is most likely wrong. And anyone says they’ve lost more money gambling than it one is most likely, right?

9:40

Yes. And actually, I knew a guy who designed the systems inside of gaming machines that dealt with the probability luck. He said you have a once in a lifetime chance to be above the line. And the only way to stay above the line is quit. chance somebody could play and get gambled for about six months maybe, and just have hit the right probability thing. But if they continue, they will always be at a net loss. Now, this is not gambling from that perspective, that gambling is a guaranteed loss because the house is taking your share. This is just a guaranteed loss from the academic evidence that we have that active managers never outperform the markets that they’re actually trying to outperform. Well, Jim Cramer doesn’t manage a fund. He’s certainly active in the way he tells you to trade your account.

10:31

Alright, and the next one. So by the way, micron, he he advised investors to wait several months, but you know, 20%, up in less than a month. That’s not bad. Like that would have been a great time to Yeah, to get in. So we see the cracks already.

10:48

Well, here’s the funny thing about that, that I would throw out. trading volume went up a bit. The same day he this article came out. Hmm. So you know, maybe to some extent now, a Jim Cramer recommendation may drive some money into a stock for a week, which would help, right, but we’re gonna see what happens at your end with all the stocks. Right.

11:10

So So Lam research is the next one. And this was one of my favorites, just just about how he made what he was calling recommendation. So he said he acknowledged that the near future could be ugly for chipmakers. However, you can’t afford to wait around too long after this next bad quarter, because lamb stock will bottom months before the business does. So that’s the most negatively oriented by recommendation ever, right? Like you’re saying, Wait, by this. Yeah,

11:47

but worse news is coming for them. So your job is to buy in because the stock is going to bottom first. Because of Jim Cramer’s Weegee board or whatever. It’s probably comes from the same place where he plucks quotes out of a jar when he says micron always has come back. I guess you could say that about every stock that’s still in existence. Yeah. Till they go bankrupt. They always came back. Same with Bear Stearns, Jim.

12:16

But But Lam he’s he’s saying it’s almost like saying, hey, this theater is going to is the set on fire. In fact, it’s actually burning summer but just stay there in the theater. Watch the movie until you smell a bunch of smoke. You don’t need to leave right now. Like in fact, calm in the street for a while. Yeah,

12:36

it’s going to go bad. But it’ll be popcorn is gonna taste great till it does

12:41

sell then right till the second before it’s burned. Yeah,

12:45

let Airbnb behead Airbnb. Yeah.

12:49

You know, so he says the company should continue to make money this year. Thanks to the current travel boom. Invite and wait. investors interested in the stock should buy gradually on the way down? He added. Alright, now this. Okay, I think something weird going on where and we talked about this a little before where it’s kind of meta, were making a piece of content off a piece of content that someone else made off of Kramer’s original piece of content. Yeah, so someone use his video. So there’s, and this is kind of the point. Look for original sources. You could be reading something online, that’s three or four steps disconnected from the original article could say something completely different? Because I don’t know. I don’t actually know what he means, like, why you should buy it now while it’s going down, because it’s gonna go back up.

13:44

Well, that’s the thing is like, Jim, if we got this market timing thing, right, why don’t you just tell me March was like, or you say and put my money in. And if it continues to go down, keep putting money in to a company that doesn’t own anything. That a transaction right now, by the way,

14:09

huge legislative vulnerability, and

14:14

we just keep putting money in because it is going to come back this year. Kramer says so, but it will be fun. We’re gonna come back. You know, here’s another one Illumina, whatever they do, but he already says, I’d rather own shares of this other company than this one, even though it was a quote up here, but maybe the Data Merge didn’t hit. Danaher didn’t take as big of a hit last year to be one of the worst ones so I Lumina is like his charity case he slipped under. So I want to say before we go through this year, Korea, I’m not going to hold them to the aluminum one. Aluminum I don’t know how to say aluminum. Aluminum Aluminum is what’s gonna be worth? Nobody like I don’t know anything about the company either. You know what I’m basing that on? It’s an individual stock. And an active manager is telling me to buy it like that right? There is a little bit like, I think, similar similar. If you were to be like, your 22 year old personal trainer gave you investment advice. You just might want to look a little past that. But are the thing that we’re thinking about, we’re going to transition to our other article here is this very relatively simple ideas that media and pundits effort mightily to predict what’s going to happen. And even though over and over again, they’ve been proven that their estimates are inaccurate, what is what is true, and is not inaccurate as the amount of clicks, views and engagement they get from making the prediction. Now, I’m gonna let you guys in on something that’s why we’re doing an article on these other people’s predictions. Because it will give us internet juice and likely drive more to this video because it’s making predictions about 2023.

16:23

So hopefully, we’re also giving you a lens through which to look at some of these other prediction This is the meta that we’re we’re doing. By the way, spot price of aluminum is down 11% Over the last year, you know,

16:40

hey down less than the s&p 500 aluminum aluminum to the moon quarry to the moon

16:51

All right, can you have diamond hands for aluminum?

16:56

Please don’t squeeze too hard aluminum soft,

16:58

hard you bend it

17:01

alright, I want to read the key points of this article Bitcoin fell over 60% in 2022, driven lower by a series of high profile company failures and a bleak macroeconomic climate. Another reason we could say this is a friend of mine is CPA he made a great point about cryptocurrency. Having said this, I’ve engaged in cryptocurrency have some experience of mining it that kind of thing. He put it best he says, Do you know why? Why Bitcoin won’t act like gold to people. I said why he said or can’t ever act as strong as a country’s currency and I said why is that he says Bitcoin doesn’t own tanks. Show me the he said show me the Bitcoin F 22 Raptor. And I will show you something that can become a reserve currency if it doesn’t have raptors. It’s not going to have reserve ability. Those who make predictions about bitcoins price last year really missed the mark. And, and, and that is said And ironically, this is part of the briefing before you read the article. And some market players have stuck their neck out with price calls for what could be another volatile year.

18:15

Can I read the headline I didn’t read the oh sorry headline. This is read the headline in this article the boldest Bitcoin calls for 2023 year out and a 14 100% rally or a 70% plunge may be in the cards so headline to write ever.

18:35

So you’re saying there’s a chance you saying there’s

18:36

gonna be a chain

18:43

now, do you

18:44

like how there is a Bitcoin in this picture like someone made it a 3d Looking coin like these don’t exist, but we still need to feel this tethering to the physical, physical world.

18:58

Now you may remember when I interviewed who was at the time our last Treasury Secretary that had been appointed. He was they just hadn’t reappointed a new one since he was so when he was on the podcast. He was our last one. In there was a guy that made Bitcoins. Oh, nice. He made coins and I remember I Ed Moises name he actually was a part of prosecuting that guy. I didn’t realize that I brought his name up on the podcast interview yet he’s like yeah, we looked it up later. So there were some actual bitcoins Cory and one of our podcast guests help prosecute tight so some dude made

19:39

these coins it was trying to like sell them to people that didn’t know that they weren’t

19:43

No I think what he had he had done something whether it was effectively made them a little hard watch them but they were a coin also. Oh cool, or he made it and he burned a Bitcoin every time he made one or something like that, but because it was now considered a currency and And he was printing it without the federal government’s permission. Yeah, Yuki. So now here’s the thing that I think is a little bit funny at the beginning of the article is it talks about FTX exchange really affecting crypto prices. And and that was right near your end like crypto was in the toilet all your tilde. And what is funny, that will give you guys a little hint. And even if you’re not a client, feel free to reach out to us and ask this question. Is anybody currently asking you about x? Because every single thing that we suddenly start getting a lot of questions about, like the two years prior to this, lots and lots of questions about crypto. And our main advice to clients is if you can’t understand cryptocurrency well enough to hold it in a cold wallet, we’re not going to help you understand how to do that you should not invest in if you don’t know that minimal amount. Which by the way, lots of people bought crypto, and they were in these exchanges that got money taken from them. So I just want to say, check mark for some finance group. That was good advice. And he kept a lot of people out of it. Because over the years, every time we see these big booms, where a bunch of people are asking about should I do this? Should I do this? Should I do this? Almost certainly. It’s there’s going to be a bubble because we observe it as we talk to hundreds and hundreds of people every year. Yeah, all right. Tim Draper most optimistic call. It’s gonna go to 250,000 250,000.

21:38

And just you know, as of today, it is at 23,000. As of this second that I just looked it up 23,000 and change.

21:53

I noticed that home remodeling contractors that are really hoping this happens, because Because yeah, how many kitchens and bathrooms are going to get redone and people’s homes

22:03

is making it rain.

22:05

Make it rain, make sure by the way, if bitcoin does go to 250, and let’s say it’s December, we haven’t done our closeout episode, I got a bit of advice for you guys, this is important that if you have something like Bitcoin go up a ton. There’s can be some individual stock you got lucky with. It could be crypto, it could be one of those crazy stocks that we talked about the Jim Cramer recommended if you have one of those, and you get an enormous payday has gone through the roof. Do not dream of changing spending, budgets, asset acquisition, anything else in less and Intel, the portion that you’re planning is going to do that other thing, lifestyle new car, I’ll just get a car loan right now I’ll pay it off later after I sell the whatever. No, do not make any changes until that is converted to cash. Because we’ve seen people ride stuff way up. We talked about Cathy Woods Ark recently. It can go up it can make you feel more rich and you are not any richer yet you might be. But if it goes to 250 don’t get the kitchen redone until you’ve liquidated the portion of Bitcoin that is going to pay for that kitchen. That that reminder is now summon

23:17

an office episode when Michael Scott comm comes out of his office and just says Attention everyone you will be getting $2,000 raises. And he’s actually just demonstrating public speaking to 20. But, but like Stanley’s like planning, get that get the carpet. We’re gonna get the drape you’re check. Yeah.

23:41

All right. Yep. And, and that happens to a lot of people. So 250 My assumption is that women sent this is why he’s saying it’s going to 250 which I do like the the connection of maybe women start getting into crypto and therefore people buying it more. It’s a bit like when women came into the workplace more in the 1940s and 50s. But wanted some bitcoin while it’s currently held by women. It’s a dam that’s about to break. And then

24:16

so to compare to the last article that you know, at least the rationale is some kind of logic not like just a feeling, Jim. Right.

24:35

The See, or is it x one? Another guy? Yeah, 200 to 5000. May goes low. The prediction one of the bank’s list of surprises that are being underpriced for the market would represent a 70% plunge. Bitcoin sell off decelerates, the damage has been done. More and more crypto firms and exchanges find themselves with insufficient liquidity Any leading to further bankruptcies and collapse and investor confidence in digital assets. The scenario has a nonzero possibility occurring in the year ahead and falls material outside of the market consensus or our own baseline view. Read that, for those

25:22

nonzero probability is one of my favorite phrases for sounding smarter than I really am. And I use time to time because it sounds so technical, but all it means is I mean, it’s the same as Harry and Lloyd saying, you know, so you’re saying there’s a chance that that’s all it means.

25:43

In December 5 research note said Bitcoin may sink. So really, this is that and by the way, Cory, and I read this, and then we talk about it together, and we’re talking about it with you guys. And even I didn’t see this on the first pass. So notice the very beginning in December 5 research note, they said, Bitcoin may sink as low as 5000. So he said may sink is low. Okay. But they say they’re predicting 5000. But really, they predicted it as a nonzero probability. Which is usually also used to make you look smart to your point quarry. And to kind of say, there’s a one 2 million chance

26:26

the long shot. Yeah, and

26:29

here’s the thing that happens to us you read this article, you love cryptocurrency, you think, you know, aluminum to the moon, or whatever, that you’re gonna Dogecoin it up. And you read this, you What are you gonna do, you’re gonna automatically gravitate toward the ones you agree with. And every one of these so far is so like, I want to these people probably did way, way more thinking that’s what’s in this article, I grant that. But what they’re sharing isn’t like such super grounded data. And they just make all the predictions, and then we’ll, you know, then you see who it says. And then veteran Investor Mark Mobius had a relatively successful 2022 In terms of his price call, in May he forecasted Bitcoin would drop 20,000 When it was trading above 28,000. And it’s currently

27:22

10,022. That did not happen. So this one’s fun. They’re again on Iraq, saying this person got it wrong before. But now they’re gonna get it right this time. But see, I I think there should be a federal law, that if you’re making public predictions, the net result of all of your predictions have to be averaged together in some kind of index, meaning he got to run before so even if he’s right now, he gets he gets, he loses credit by the amount. The first time

27:57

this is so now, this could just be copywriting. So these two sentences together, Corey in May he forecasted Bitcoin or dropped to 20,000 when it was trading above 28. So that was in May of 22 is trading may 22 is still above 28. Right there. And then he said it would drop to 20,000. And it did, he nailed it, it did drop to 20,000 ish before yet. But then he said Bitcoin would fall to 10,020 22.

28:28

That did not happen,

28:29

what but see in May. So when was this other forecast. They don’t even give you enough information to assess the forecaster. But that’s hard to notice unless you read with a critical mind. And I hate to tell you guys this, that you cannot trust the financial media you have to take. That’s why we show our screen. That’s why we show you what we’re talking about. We post it in the show notes, we are going to do our darndest to not lead anybody astray or lead you to believe in opinion without appropriate grounding.

29:01

And it’s not that they’re out to get you it would be better, it’d be easier if they were out to get you because you can actually predict that behavior. It’s just that they don’t always know that you don’t know who’s writing the article or how much experience they have with the internet the bar is lower than ever to getting on a site with a name that you recognize because everybody’s got such a draw for so much content, so constantly need to fill that void.

29:29

Cory I’m gonna I want to have you let our audience know something here. When you read a lot of articles on Yahoo, if you read to the bottom, they come from the smart asset blog. So if you see articles from the smart asset blog, why don’t you tell Corey our audience what smart asset really is?

29:52

Well, smart asset is as an advisor marketing strategy. So the whole reason that smart asset articles exist is to have a link in the article to enable someone to click in and request a meeting with an advisor.

30:11

And we got your your countless emails, where they solicit us say, why don’t you want to meet with these people that needed an advisor needed? And now that I know that I read their articles a little bit differently. I’m like, oh, yeah, that’s not, you’re not getting advice. You are giving people some candy. And then hoping they click on the next thing for something nutritious.

30:30

And we and we only know that because we’ve, you know, when it first came out, we were intrigued by this, and we even experimented with, with subscribing with them to see what happens and what because we thought, Well, gosh, these people aren’t like we’re up here on the, on the podcast, trying to help people with these kinds of questions. Maybe if we meet someone, right, when they’re reading that article, and they have that question, we can really be a big help in interpreting it. But what we found is that folks were in all kinds of different states of mind, when they were they were meeting us, they weren’t really, they weren’t really in a position to actually want the help that we were, that we are offering. So yeah, so you got to know what the source source is. And there’s very few sources that are just there because someone’s curious and wants to answer the question and not gonna make any money from it. Yep.

31:23

Well, let’s look at the last couple of predictions. And then we’ll wrap Carol Alexander, she’s 50,000. She’s a professor of finances, Sussex University. And it says she was not far off in the mark with her prediction that Bitcoin would slip to 10,020 22. Well, she was 80% off. That catalyst would be more dominoes tipping over. So anyway, she’s thinking 50,000, see if we have that’s it for the predictions for now. But what I think is going to be fun is when we check in on this, and maybe if we see a couple other interesting predictions in the first quarter, we’ll bring them to you all. But to notice and the some of these may be amazing. And I think it would be really cool to be like, Oh, who knew lamb research would invent a brand by the way. Insert your favorite curse word in what I’m about to say. I Garin blank, t you, okay? That what if any of these stocks goes through the effing roof and like recovers, it’s 2022 highs, it

32:36

I’m gonna come down course. And now I know Paulson Saward what

32:39

it is going to be because of something new. It will be because something they didn’t know at the time this article was written it will be something that was invented or released or a market change or something else because that is what moves stocks will move stocks, his new novel, and previously known information, like stocks were affected drastically when the tsunami hit Japan, in Japan, their stocks, right? Nobody knew an hour before that was gonna happen. Right? Like, nobody could trade on that information. It was new. And that when we go back, we’re going to do the research on these companies to see why their stock moved the way they did. And I promise you probably even if it’s negative, it will be because of things they didn’t know when this article is written. And it’s going to give us a really great piece of evidence for all of you. That’s why we do this. So that you guys don’t have to stub your toe on these mistakes costing yourself 10s of 1000s if not hundreds of 1000s of dollars in unnecessary taxes and fees. And there’s one thing that you can do that is going to have your entire financial future turned out we saved it to the end. Just be sure to subscribe

Jim Kramer can make these predictions with so little evidence. If some guy can say bitcoins go to a quarter million. Why can I say all your financial woes will be solved? If you subscribe and I’m not talking then you listen for six months. I’m talking by Friday. And if I’m wrong, you need an email, send me an email. It’s not guaranteed

34:19

for a reason. By the SEC, like we are that’s the reason

34:24

Oh, that’s why he can say because he doesn’t have a license I have. Let me take that back not guaranteed to solve all your problems. I do like my licensure. But it’s but it’s worth noting. There’s an example of someone we can’t and we can’t say that they can because they don’t have the accountability. Their accountability is two ratings with their boss and their boss is not you watching their bosses that media company. You are our boss, the listener, the client, and the person that we’re working to help design and build a good life. And we look forward to seeing you guys next week.

 

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