PODCAST EPISODE 229: Our Thoughts on Vanguard’s Value Proposition.

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Paul 0:08

Hello and welcome to your business your wealth. My name is Paul Adams I am joined as usual, by Mr. Corey Shepherd. Corey was traveling last week didn’t get a chance to join me with our folks who were written about in The Wall Street Journal that we talked a little bit about the strategies they were in and, and what was missing perhaps from what they had done. And Corey, you know what today just in honor of you not being able to make that no unique introduction today.

Cory 0:40

Wow. Well, I do I do want to acknowledge you for using your relationship, enriching words, you know, joined as usual, it’s a great word because the always Nevers, you know, they just, they just are never true. They never add to create discord in a relationship. So thanks for for bringing us back together after my, my week away. Really appreciate it.

Paul 1:02

Okay, guys, if anybody understood what Cory said, please put it in the comments translate it for me, because I didn’t

Cory 1:08

just Chris

Paul 1:10

wrote. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah. All right. Well, guys, we’ve got a fun episode. Today, we are going to talk about this white paper that’s periodically released from Vanguard, the last one was in 2019, talking about the benefits of working with an advisor. Yeah. Yeah, like a not trigger warning, but some kind of warning is like, we are going to look at this paper, there’s some good stuff in it. And we are not saying the reason this paper exists is the reason you should work with an advisor, there are some other criteria you should consider before engaging in advisor beyond this white paper saying if you go to our website, download the link in the description below. You can read it for yourself. And it’s a huge advocate for using an advisor, but we’re going to give you some additional criteria or things that advisor ought to be looking at with you to actually help you get the most what they call alpha. And if you guys aren’t familiar with that term, alpha just means additional returns above and beyond what would otherwise be expected.

Cory 2:18

And I and you know, as a financial advisor, I’m pre disposed to liking that this article exists. I like that. But I also just it, it’s great for Vance and Vanguard, who is they started as the left the left that anybody person, every person gets some investing done on their own, and they have a retail platform to let people do it themselves. So for them to say, using advisor on top of that is helpful is a really cool thing to hear. But we also have to keep in mind that they have the Vanguard for advisors platform where an advisor can sign up to use Vanguard funds with their clients. So this may be a support strategy for that we have to keep that that in mind. So

Paul 3:07

and and one thing you said that I think could be important for our audience is yes, honor Vanguard for John Bogles work in probably the single biggest company in democratizing the ability for individuals to at least have the possibility of effectively investing in the market on their own. But why did this Vanguard for advisors pop up? How did it get created? Why did Vanguard after years of saying advisors are overrated, in awful and whatever, why all of a sudden did they build an Advisor Platform. And by the way, they’re not the only no load mutual fund that has done that in the last 15 years. Sharon, what it comes down to is some of the things in this paper is despite all of the things that can negatively impact somebody with as it relates to their finances, working with an advisor, you know, somebody is disreputable. You can have somebody who market times you can have those things. But overwhelmingly, they saw that their business model would be helped by having more advisors on the platform, one, just a little bit of a story from the COVID period here back in March of 2020, speaking with one of the larger platforms that allows both advisors on it, and individual investors, and they call that the institutional side versus individual investors, and they said that literally the institutional side, had a vastly different set of outcomes when it came to investor behavior through the COVID pandemic, and and very different and more positive outcomes for the investors that were attached to an advisor. And we’re going to hit that in part of this report. So we’re going to jump in, and we’re just going to start a couple of pages in if you guys are following along and you’ve done the download you’re going to see this but I want to read one quote from kind of the introduction. And this talks a little bit about hiring somebody to do anything. This is on page two. It’s like the second last paragraph in the right hand column if you guys are, you know, listening to this on the podcast and just looking at the white paper. The same reasoning applies to other household services that we pay for such as painting house cleaner landscaping. Now these can be considered negative carry services, in that we expect to recoup the fees, we paid largely as emotional rather than financial benefits. You might may well be able to wield a paint brush, but you might want to spend your limited free time doing something else. Or you may suspect that a professional painter will do a better job value is in the eyes of the beholder. So along with all the other things that we’re going to talk about, that could add value and working with an advisor, I don’t want to overlook the fact that for many of you out there, you know, you’re working, you know, 5060 hours a week, maybe you’re climbing the corporate ladder, you’re running a business, and you continue to be every single month employee of the month, because you’re the hardest worker inside the organization. And some of the value might just be in getting some of this off of your cognitive radar, for instance, we had a client, send us a note this week, you know, with all everything going on with Russia and Ukraine, it is super tough to navigate from an investing perspective, you’re out there on your own, I just got a message from saying how much of our portfolio is in Russia? And I was able to answer that it was less than 1%. It’s super small. Because for it, by the way, for all of you

Cory 6:38

to say about the overall market cap of Russia, it was really surprising.

Paul 6:42

Yeah, so GDP versus market cap just to get everybody spooled up on it. Market capitalization is the cumulative value of all their publicly traded securities. And because Russia is largely state owned, that restricts much like China that you don’t have that many companies you can publicly invest in. So Russia’s market capitalization is less than that of Brazil’s overall. So if you have an academically allocated globally diversified portfolio, you have very, very little in a place like Russia. And despite all of the news, and everything going on now, there is real tragedy, real death, real people being affected. I am not overlooking that. But the thing that I think about when I see and I scroll through the newsfeed and it’s all Russia, Ukraine right now, is the fact that, you know, Cory and I were in the business back in what was it 2014 ish, when, like, the Greek people were rioting in the streets, and their banking system was going to collapse. And every night on the financial news, they were like this could destroy your portfolio. Well, they were less than 1% of an academically allocated globally diversified portfolio for the entire country of Greece. And yet, they made it sound like on the news, like it was all going to burn down. Now, we’re gonna have some market volatility as a result of this some up some down. But rest assured, it’s not that big of a piece of your portfolio. That’s even, it’s it’s only 10% Europe overall. So then a very small subset of that is Russia. Okay. So let’s get down to Oh, good.

Cory 8:15

Yeah, back to the White Paper, right this way, this white paper, I do I, you know, I like this negative carry this idea that you’re spending money. But what it’s not what it’s not adding in there is. It could be free time, if you’re trading your free time, for a paint brush, like you’re spending more on, like, if you can do it just as well, then maybe you’re not really saving money. But if it’s affecting other productive time, then there’s other value that you can get more more than just what you’re spending and what you’re getting back. It’s like what you’re also adding in some third place. So that like, if you’re also if you’re not the employee of the month, but you’re the, you know, your employees keep buying new world’s best boss mug every month, month after month. Like there’s some other value that might be began as well other than free time.

Paul 9:12

Yeah, well said. Well said. So, where we’re going next is the bottom of page four. And what this does lays out the case now the white paper itself backs up each of these claims, but for the sake of our conversation, aside from a few things that we’ve highlighted, we’re going to dig into just looking at each one of these. Now, here’s the funny thing, the first one, and this used to be I remember, I’ve been in this business 25 years, I remember this used to be one of the highest value things an advisor could do. And that is suitable asset allocation using broadly diversified funds and ETFs. That is now barely more than zero. Like it is it is maybe valuable, but that used to be the primary value of an advisor working with a client And now that one is kind of washed out to see because people can access broadly diversified portfolios, through, you know, tools like Wealthfront, betterment, Vanguard, etc.

Cory 10:12

Well, it used to be that calling up your stockbroker, and getting the good investing idea was the value of an advisor because they had their ear to information that no one else had. Now, that’s not a differentiator anymore. It’s, it’s, you know, so it is funny, like, that’s just the ante, that’s pot stakes. Yep, to get into the game,

Paul 10:32

well said, then there’s cost effective implementation. So that just means being conscious of the expense ratios on the funds that advisors using now, by the way, as you if you’re reading this paper, you’re looking at what’s on our screen here on YouTube, the thing to notice is, this entire paper is written to advisors, not to clients. That’s a key distinction. So for for you look at this. Vanguard is advocating cost effective implementation, controlling expense ratios. And they say that that on average, across what they’ve studied, adds 34 basis points, or a third of a percent, point three, four of a percent.

Cory 11:15

Although, you know, it’s funny, Paul, they did write this in a voice directed at advisors, but they also approved it for public use, meaning most in the industry, some companies, they can more quickly produce content for advisors, if they label it not for public distribution, meaning it hasn’t been a super fine tooth comb applied and approved for greater public, but they went to the trouble to do that, which means they they do want other than the general consumer to see this

Paul 11:46

dude, in theory. So the next one is rebalancing. Now rebalancing should, you know kind of make sense to folks, but it’s this idea that if you have a set of assets, and we’ll just use, as example, a 60%, stock 40% bond portfolio, just because they’re nice round numbers I can use? And let’s say you hold that what’s going to outperform over time? stocks? Yeah, every time. Oh, every time overtime, overtime.

Cory 12:17

Ooh, that like that. That’s like, works 80% of the time every time. That’s right. That’s right.

Paul 12:25

So every time overtime in all of our historical analysis stocks, as a whole outperformed bonds, so let’s say you don’t rebalance, well, then if stocks outperformed bonds by 10%, then the next year, you have 66% in stocks, and 34% bonds, and you kind of picture that moving across and through time in especially our low interest rate environment. And in a good equity market. There say a good solid three, four year run of equities, you could be in the position where you now have an 8020, portfolio 80% stocks, 20% bonds. Now, Cory, I don’t mean to put you on the spot.

Cory 13:10

But you you almost always do.

Paul 13:13

Okay, would you? What would you say typically happens after equities have a really good run for a period of time. They’ve been going up every year for a few to four years, what’s what eventually occurs?

Cory 13:28

Some kind of correction, some kind of dip in the market.

Paul 13:33

And so and this is something I would say to all of you is this is so tempting to not rebalance your portfolio, whether you work with an advisor or not. It is so tempting to be like, well, those stocks are doing so good. I don’t want to exit out of them and rebalance to bonds, because bonds aren’t doing that good. Yes, but bonds are allowing you to take some of the chips off the table, that fixed income bond component. So if you’re out there listening right now, and maybe you’ve selected an allocation inside your 401k, you haven’t revisited it in a while, go back and look at your allocation. And if you’re doing it on your 401k, maybe you’ve been working with that company for five years, the to kind of as a cheat sheet, you probably have the the allocation you intended, was the way you were initially invested. Maybe you haven’t changed that. So if you were, say 6040 60% stocks, 40% bonds in your initial funds that you picked, your portfolio might be at 20. Now, meaning the portfolio is now taking FAR more risk than you originally intended. And the reason it’s taken on more risk is because you’ve been in a bull market. So when we enter into bear market territory, you’re going to get hurt worse because of the equities outperformance because now you’re overweighted to stocks. So that’s what they’re talking about. There’s the important Have that rebalancing.

Cory 15:02

And I like the Note that they have in here a lot like note that the goal of a rebalancing strategy is to minimize risk rather than maximize return. So you they, they say it a couple different ways, but the investor should really hit the level of risk that they want and then rebalance from there. Or if they don’t have particular concern for the inherent risk, they just have 100% equity. And there’s no rebalancing to do except for among asset classes, which they don’t go that deeper, deeper route. But here’s what’s just occurring to me, Paul is read. I mean, rebalancing is an is an algorithm it Vanguard was already doing it in their individual funds, like, Vanguard target retirement fund is gonna rebalance over time. So now that I’ve read this a couple times, I’m kinda like, is this really even an advisor? thing, I mean, educating clients about the value of some of these things, but I’d put this like education as one of the ones that is missing in here, potentially not so much rebalancing as an advisor Alpha tool.

Paul 16:09

I totally agree with that. And this is the other part that is the point that’s made in this section is that, let’s say your portfolio drifted at 20. And you’re okay with it, then change your allocation to that. And here’s why. Because when the market has its bear market, we need to rebalance in the bottom that bear market, we reached out to every one of our clients, we could get a hold of during the COVID market drop, because we looked at it and I was now by the way, this is not market prognostication. Okay. But I am on podcast I am on video saying that this market, the one that where the COVID went down and people were losing their ever loving minds. I said, this is not the same thing. We had no financial crisis, financial crisis was the machine was breaking. And we had to fix it while the market was going on. COVID in terms of market terms, was a little bit like we had a well oiled market machine, that the economy that was going well, but somebody threw a dirty towel in the front end called COVID. And that gummed up the works for a little bit. And it was temporary. And I was one of the only people out there publicly, that said, I think the s&p is going to recover by your end. Now that again, that wasn’t me saying this is how it’s gonna go. But by the way, the other thing that I said in that same talk was, it’s gonna it’s gonna recover by year end. And if it doesn’t, it will recover. It wasn’t life is burning down all that.

Cory 17:48

I think the big point of the big difference in all of that, Paul, is that we weren’t telling anybody to do anything that they weren’t already going to do. It was just strategies that were already in place. We say, Well, fast forward, that cash into the market. Yeah. Because because why not? Right? It wasn’t, or totally changing your whole financial strategy because of this temporary thing.

Paul 18:10

Exactly. Right. And rebalancing, when we, when we had a market pullback, we can’t catch the bottom, because we never know when the bottom is. But by rebalancing, so if you have that 6040 portfolio that became at 20 Over time, and then the COVID pullback of March 2020 hits, and you don’t change your portfolio, you just got a 6040 portfolio again, you know, you never took advantage because if you’d have said, Okay, I’m at 20, then it went back to 6040, you’d be taking 20% of your fixed income and buying on that huge dip that had the stock market price the same as it was back in 2017. Like you got 2017 prices in 2020, if you rebalance at the bottom, okay, so that’s the benefit of rebalancing. And by the way, that rebalancing, which was going to tie a little bit to this behavioral coaching, but if you’re working with an advisor that does that rebalancing for you, and emotionally, systematically, they may you might go on paying them 1%. And it’s terrible. It’s like well, they just on one rebalancing, at a time that it took courage to do so, and to guidance and leadership and somebody else that wasn’t the mishmash of the market yelling at you. Well, that one time may have paid that advisors fees for a long time.

Cory 19:32

Yeah. Which is really the next one behavioral coaching.

Paul 19:36

Mm hmm. And, and they value that one at 1.5%. Like that’s, I want you to get further into it. But I just wanted to make that clear to people they value that at 150 basis points. To keep going quick, even say,

Cory 19:53

right here in the actual section because I’m just I got another one open with some of my notes. It’s one 2% net return is what they say in the actual section. So it could be more than one and a half percent. And here’s that. Here’s the big takeaway from the data that they pull is they do a study on Vanguard target date funds, versus other allocations where folks are taking money out, they do a moving

Paul 20:21

move money once during a bear market, right.

Cory 20:25

And accounts that had an exchange money went out were underperforming on average 150 basis points. So right there, it’s and we’ve looked at dowel bar studies in the past that compare the average of the market to the average actual investor looking at their statements and how they tend to underperform. And it’s that investor behavior, it’s one of the main ways that we can create a vacuum sucking away the rate of return that the market was going to give. Anyway. And so I love this grounding here for that happening. And that’s like what you talked about the beginning, Paul, with advisors accounts versus non advised, what we saw was huge net outflows during the pandemic versus huge net inflows with advisor lated money and and that money continued to, to grow over that that period. So

Paul 21:20

and I want to translate that in case a little bit of industry speak, there didn’t land with you guys. That is that with many firms that don’t have primarily an advisor attached to their clients, or firms, where advisors don’t do a good job of selling people investments, but not a good job of coaching and educating them. See tremendous outflows, meaning money going out of the investments into cash during those periods of time, versus the people that are coached, etc. Like we we actually had a back office at the time that was handling our trading. And we were having to call at 9am. Because everybody that use this same back office was also coaching their advisors. And so we called and said, Hey, we need to get these clients invested and rebalanced, and this client has a little extra cash they want to put in. And they would say, Okay, we’re gonna do do our best, like, whoa, what’s going on thinking maybe a lot of people were selling in here we were the lone wolf saying put money and they said, No, all of our clients are adding money. But one thing that I think is key around this behavioral coaching actually goes to this. It’s a little part that I highlighted Corey, under conclusion on page six, it’s in the first paragraph. Last sentence says some of the best opportunities to add value occur during periods of market duress, or euphoria, when clients are tempted to abandon their well thought out investment plants. Now I read that slow because I think it’s key. It’s that having somebody there like, How many times have we seen people like, I mean, here, a crypto was on that huge run? And how many times do we get questions from clients saying, hey, maybe should we be investing in crypto that will like as we stand today, versus where the prices were, when it was is very recent high, you would have lost 50% in that investment? Yeah, currency, whatever you want to call it, but write it but that literally saving people from that. So let’s say somebody said, I want to put $100,000 there, what you save them a $50,000 loss. And more than that in lost opportunity cost because the market kept marching forward, while that one single investment took a hit. So what’s key is that like, I’ll another one would be as somebody said, Well, now’s the time to change your asset allocation, maybe you shouldn’t have as much in international. Well, if you do that. International has been lagging over the US markets, but the markets that lag are the ones that are likely to perform better in future years. So we’re going to get out of those markets at the time when they’re, they’ve not been performing well. No, that’s the very time to continue to hold them because eventually they come back all the reason why holding your allocation and an advisor that’s encouraging you to do so. Or if you are a total do it yourself, or what you might need to consider is putting in some kind of accountability to make sure you don’t do that. I knew a guy who he was investing in individual stocks, which you know, we don’t encourage, but I did like the accountability he put in. He he had his teenage son change his password to his trading account. So on any day, and he said, he said I think something to the effect of I’m going to give you $500 If you don’t give me my password, before the s&p 500 comes back to its pre pandemic levels and that created an account ability that made sure he didn’t put the take inappropriate or rash action on the things that he bought at the bottom. Okay, yeah, that’s it the next one

Cory 25:10

asset location. Now, well, so the thing that I’m, we talked about this one a little bit at the beginning already. And they talk about, you know where to put different assets and different kinds of accounts for taxability benefits. The other thing that I wish they would talk about is time availability, like thinking about how to position like positioning enough cash to let the rest of your portfolio do its thing, you know, Morgan Housel psychology of money, one of our favorite books in recent years about personal finance was just talking about, you know, even though the savings account gets effectively zero, there’s a real rate of return to having money in cash, because it allows you to let your other investments play out and not pull out at inopportune times. So that’s another part of asset, location. But of course, this is an article marketed to advisors, and huge cash positions tend not to get paid asset fees. So that might be why this is left out of here, or at least not, not that they intentionally left anything out. But there’s this real inertia towards what generates revenue that can be tough to break. In that way.

Paul 26:29

I would agree. And I think that one other thing, that’s, I think, you know, when we look at something like this, we’re like, what’s missing, flawed, incomplete or weak about what they’re saying? And something that’s missing? Or maybe this one’s incomplete? Is this idea that? Well, if you held and this is the basic concept of asset location, if you had 50% bonds, 50% stocks, and you have 50% of your money in an IRA and 50% of your money outside the IRA, then on an Excel spreadsheet, not real life, if you analyze the growth of the bonds, and the fact that their income taxable in a individual account, versus stocks, you’d say own the stocks, personally put all the bonds in the retirement plan that is really going to help you a lot. Right, except that’s gonna put us in the position that 100% of the money we have access to on a daily basis to buy the vacation home, help pay for a wedding, or just feel more safe in times of market volatility. Well, 100% equities is what we have is our you know, we teach is the midterm bucket. Yeah, you will break strategy freakout and abandon that in hard times. Yeah, good. So that’s why the asset location, that I think they’re right that it’s zero to 75, because maybe there’s a slight benefit unless you put somebody in a position, it’s a strategy they cannot hold. And then I like this next one spending strategy, withdrawal order. Now, by the way, the withdrawal order, comes back to the fact that Vanguard is looking just at you’ve already accumulated assets. And then which order should you withdraw them in? What there’s no conversation about is what order did you build them in. Because if you had a 401k, and that’s all you did was throw money in there. They mentioned right here in this paper totally, like exposed in MIT to it without talking about how easy it is to fix the problem. So if you’re retired with all 401k money, then there’s really no value. That’s why it’s zero to 110 bits, because we don’t know how you have your money invested. But nothing about maybe that client should have taken a little more effort to convert some IRA to Roth, or perhaps put money in the Roth 401k. Or maybe what they should have done is built some non qualified investments, maybe they should own whole life insurance, maybe they have real estate in their portfolio, and that’s a factor in their spin down. Right? None of that. Because the only thing they’re dealing with is your investments. So there’s no conversation about proper exiting of your business, there’s no conversation about positioning cash, maybe overtime, as we’ve talked about in the podcast into whole life insurance, cash values, instead of all, you know, leaving 200,000 of your emergency funds sitting in cash in a bank for 30 years. That’s all left off. And that’s the biggest piece that’s missing from this entire picture, is how did you position yourself before you got to retirement so that the cash flows or retirement gave you the greatest possible opportunity? I’ll give you one quick example meeting with this amazing couple yesterday, and they’ve done a good job. They’re really, really good at setting aside money into investments. And one of the things that they’ve been told over and over again, is that you should just put money in pre tax contributions. Now they’ve got millions of dollars. They’re, they’re in their 40s Like they they’ve done Great job with regular kind of income, but just not spending all the saving like 50% really incredible. And we had to talk about the fact that right now, something like 90% of their investments are either non qualified, or in pre tax retirement and only very, very little is involved in a tax free like Roth. And it’s a very simple strategy for them to start channeling some of this money toward Roth, just nobody had taken the time to teach that to them before because everybody’s focused on what is the biggest quote unquote, number you can have, without a conversation about how you’re going to withdraw it. And then I take issue of one last little thing on total return versus income investing at the end here. Now,

Cory 30:49

I mean, kudos for going there in the first place. Because I think there is a big narrative like it’s a default narrative in the financial industry, like you’re getting older, you want some income, let’s set up an income generating portfolio with bonds, and stocks that shoot dividends out to

Paul 31:08

you, because they get to sell you something new. That’s why it’s prevailing. Because you’ve had a portfolio and I’ll sell you on getting this other guy.

Cory 31:19

And the corpus stays into in the portfolio. Like it’s, it’s to sell out any thing that was already there, if we’re consumed. And that’s what they talk about here is a total return versus income investing. So you can create an income generating portfolio, or you can spend from the total return of the portfolio. And we talked a lot of clients about how that gets them more predictably to the same place or better than a income, quote unquote, producing portfolio. But they that they don’t really weigh in on an overall answer in here. They just kind of say, here’s some different places you don’t know what that what the data is, is that they’re suggesting?

Paul 32:04

What if you look at those and usually people say, Well, I want some dividend payers. And the the trouble with getting those dividend payers is the reason why is it Why is a major public company kicking out, I’m not saying any dividends, because many of them do, but I’m talking the inordinate dividends that are giving you like 5% cash flow on your money. Number one, your principal still risk it’s not a bond feels like one little bit. But second, the reason they’re paying out an inordinately sized dividend is simply because they haven’t found an effective use of capital inside the enterprise. And if that company is being compared over the next 10 years to a company that is finding appropriate use of Camp capital inside of the enterprise to grow the enterprise value? Well, it’s kind of obvious which one of those two is going to outperform over time. And you can see that if you see these high dividend pair stocks, and watch what kind of happens to your principal, if you had invested in those over time, is your principal can actually take a hit over time. And even if it doesn’t take a hit, it probably won’t keep up with the overall performance. But in this paper overall, what they’re discussing and everything they get to is it’s about a 3% increase in net returns, for somebody working with an advisor using some of these strategies. And what I think Cory and I would say is, if your advisor is also looking at your balance sheet holistically, they’re looking at how do you invest with outside of them? How are you deploying your 401k that they don’t manage? Where’s the most effective way to make your next contribution? Should you or should you not dabble in rental real estate? And if you did, how would you go about doing it so that you don’t get burned? Those kinds of things that we do for our clients, and there are some other advisors out there that do this for their clients. That return might be mid double digits in some years, simply because they were able to look at the hole and make it work more efficiently. Not just say, here’s how this investment did. Alright, Cory, I think we took a lot longer with that than we intended. I hope it was valuable for anybody anything we need to hit before we leave off today

Cory 34:23

at all, this is great.

Paul 34:25

Alright guys, we hope that you enjoyed this episode. We always enjoy it. Please be sure to like, subscribe, comment below and we hope that this has been a contribution to you being able to design and build a good life

 

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